How States Are Graded
How PlainFoster converts four source-backed FY2022 AFCARS measures into a descriptive profile grade.
How the grades actually fall
The grade is a within-release percentile rank, not an absolute standard, so it is designed to spread: 22 of 51 jurisdictions land in grade C, with 1 at A and 2 at F.
- 51
- Jurisdictions graded
- C
- Most common grade (22 jurisdictions)
- 1
- Graded A
- 2
- Graded F
Because the grade ranks jurisdictions against each other within one release, a grade can move when other states move, even if a state's own measures did not change. It is not a federal assessment and not a judgment of child safety.
Distribution of profile grades
What a relative grade can and cannot say
PlainFoster grades are within-release ranks. Each jurisdiction is scored against the other jurisdictions in the same AFCARS release, then mapped into letter bands. That design spreads the field on purpose: most rows land near the middle, and very few sit at A or F, because the score is comparative rather than an absolute pass/fail bar from HHS.
A practical consequence follows. If peer states improve on reunification while one state holds steady, that state's composite percentile can fall even though its own four rates did not change. The reverse is also true. Treat the grade as a reading aid for the four source-backed measures on the state page, not as a federal report card or a claim about child safety.
The distribution chart above is the evidence for that design. When the modal band is C, the composite is doing what a relative ranking is supposed to do: concentrate mass in the middle and reserve A and F for the tails. If every state scored A, the grade would no longer carry information.
Four Equal Measures
Each state receives a percentile rank on reunification rate, adoption rate, aging-out rate, and median length of stay among children exiting care. Higher reunification and adoption ranks are favorable; lower aging-out and length-of-stay ranks are favorable. The four percentile ranks are averaged with equal weight.
| Grade | Composite score | Display band |
|---|---|---|
| A | 80–100 | Highest composite band |
| B | 60–79.9 | Upper-middle composite band |
| C | 40–59.9 | Middle composite band |
| D | 20–39.9 | Lower-middle composite band |
| F | 0–19.9 | Lowest composite band |
Four Tracked Metrics
Every displayed measure has a direct FY2022 AFCARS jurisdiction-report lineage:
Reunification Rate
Share of FY2022 exits discharged to a parent or primary caretaker.
Adoption Rate
Share of FY2022 exits discharged through adoption.
Aging Out Rate
Share of FY2022 exits discharged through emancipation.
Median Length of Stay
Median months in care among children who exited during FY2022.
Data Sources
All state performance data comes from federal sources:
- ACF AFCARS FY2013–FY2022 state workbook - supplies annual counts for children served, in care on September 30, entries, exits, children waiting for adoption, terminated parental rights, and adoptions.
- FY2022 AFCARS jurisdiction reports - one report for each state and the District of Columbia supplies discharge-reason counts, placement-setting counts, and median time in care among exits.
PlainFoster does not currently publish per-capita or NCANDS maltreatment overlays. Their former values did not have a reproducible archived-source path and were removed rather than carried forward.
Grade-band thresholds at a glance
Grades are assigned from the equal-weight mean of four within-release percentile ranks. The score bands are fixed, while the raw rates associated with a band can change with each data release. The table below shows the current state count in each composite band.
| Grade | Composite score band | States (of 51) |
|---|---|---|
| A | 80–100 | 1 (2%) |
| B | 60–79.9 | 14 (27.5%) |
| C | 40–59.9 | 22 (43.1%) |
| D | 20–39.9 | 12 (23.5%) |
| F | 0–19.9 | 2 (3.9%) |
Live-computed from the current dataset (51 states/DC). Ties receive the midpoint of the tied percentile positions. The grade is editorial context, not an official federal assessment and not a measure of child safety.
Limitations
This grading system has important limitations to understand:
- Four raw outcome measures cannot fully capture the complexity of a state's child welfare system
- States have different definitions, data systems, and reporting practices, which can affect comparability
- The composite does not measure maltreatment, well-being, service quality, or case-level safety
- Geographic and demographic differences between states affect all outcomes
- This is a simplified educational tool, not an official federal assessment
Frequently Asked Questions
Which measures determine the grade?
The grade weights four FY2022 AFCARS measures equally: reunification and adoption rates (higher ranks score better), and aging-out rate and median length of stay among exits (lower ranks score better).
Does a lower grade mean a state is negligent?
No. Grades reflect outcomes measured by available federal metrics, not the effort or dedication of child welfare workers. States with lower grades may face structural challenges: underfunding, high caseloads, rural service gaps, or higher rates of substance use disorders in their communities.
Is this an official federal grade?
No. It is a PlainFoster descriptive composite built from published AFCARS figures. The federal Child and Family Services Reviews use different risk-standardized indicators and should not be confused with this display.
Why are four formerly displayed indicators absent?
The prior database values for re-entry, placement stability, maltreatment recurrence, and timely permanency could not be reproduced from its archived sources. PlainFoster withholds them until an exact source, period, definition, and unit can be wired into the ETL.